Insights

Emaar announced its largest masterplan to date on 12 June 2026 and reiterated it at the Investment Summit in Dubai on 7 September: around AED 200 billion of development value, more than 4.5 million sqm of gross floor area and space for about 150,000 residents. The plan describes a mixed-use district with homes, offices, schools, healthcare, mosques and retail within walking distance, five zones from a business hub to a villa enclave, and a metro connection.\n\nWhat is still missing is everything a buyer needs: the plot, the name, the number of units, the launch date and a price list. Until Emaar publishes them, any offer of a pre-launch allocation is unverified. We will report once the first unit list exists. Sources: Emaar press release, 11 Jun 2026; Construction Week Online, Jun 2026; The National, 7 Sep 2026.

The Dubai Land Department counted 11,601 sales in August 2026 with a combined value of AED 27.89 billion. Adding mortgages (AED 14.36 billion across 3,735 registrations) and gifts (AED 3.97 billion across 620) the month totals AED 46.22 billion over 15,960 transactions. From January to the end of August, 148,564 transactions worth AED 523.44 billion were registered. The highest single sale of the month was an apartment at Orla Infinity by Omniyat on Palm Jumeirah at AED 79 million, followed by AED 65 million at Jumeirah Residences Asora Bay.\n\nMortgage volume is the figure to watch: at roughly a third of the month's value it shows how much of the market is financed rather than paid in cash, which matters for anyone comparing a payment plan with a bank offer. Sources: Dubai Land Department via Arabian Business, 1 Sep 2026; Voice of Emirates, 1 Sep 2026 (year to date).

Contract rents fell 6.2 per cent quarter on quarter in Q2 and 2.6 per cent year on year. The first half brought 272,522 Ejari contracts, 4.8 per cent fewer than a year earlier; in July alone 38,197 contracts split into 19,766 renewals and 18,431 new lettings. Renewals dominate and sit below market: about AED 75 per sq ft against AED 91 per sq ft for new contracts, with the median renewal up 3 per cent to AED 61,500. Three forces pushed rents down: the spring exodus during the conflict, some 18,000 handovers in the first half, and the Smart Rental Index with instalment rents, which turned tenants into negotiators.\n\nDemand is returning: 161,000 more residents by the end of July, a purchasing managers index of 55.3 in August, Blackstone back in the DIFC. Around 32,000 further units are due in the second half, so mass-market locations become a tenant's market while villas and prime stock stay scarce. For a rental calculation use actual Ejari rents, not asking rents. Sources: SabrinaThePalm Dubai market report 09/2026, as of 08.09.2026, with the sources named there. Figures: CBRE Q2 2026, DLD Ejari raw data, fäm Properties, Betterhomes, S&P Global PMI.

August counted 11,147 residential sales at AED 21.43 billion: volume down 11.5 per cent on July, value stable, median AED 1,693 per sq ft. The value held because the mix moved up: sales above AED 5 million rose 29.3 per cent month on month, with 193 deals from AED 10 million after 149 in July. Off-plan kept 74.2 per cent of transactions and its median price rose 3.1 per cent year on year in the first half, to AED 1,806 per sq ft. The resale market carries the decline, down 42 to 59 per cent depending on the source, though the yearly gap in apartment resales halved within three months to −22.4 per cent.\n\nDevelopers defend list prices and concede through incentives instead: a 4 per cent DLD waiver at Sobha, Damac and Aldar, post-handover plans, furnishing. On a median off-plan purchase that waiver is worth about AED 55,000. Sources: SabrinaThePalm Dubai market report 09/2026, as of 08.09.2026, with the sources named there. Figures: DLD via Projectory, fäm Properties, ValuStrat H1 2026.

The ValuStrat price index fell around 10.5 per cent from its February peak, and the monthly path shows the braking distance: −5.9 per cent in March, −0.2 per cent in August at 218.8 points. In August villas posted a yearly minus for the first time since 2021 at −1.7 per cent, apartments stand at −5.3 per cent. The spread between communities is wide: the Burj Khalifa district −19 per cent year on year, JBR −15 per cent, while Silicon Oasis gained 6 per cent, Sports City 5.4 per cent and Jumeirah Islands 15 per cent.\n\nRatings agencies frame the range: Fitch sees a correction of up to 15 per cent without a crash, S&P points to a cash share of 87 per cent as a buffer. A correction of this shape rewards selection, not timing. Sources: SabrinaThePalm Dubai market report 09/2026, as of 08.09.2026, with the sources named there. Figures: ValuStrat VPI March to August 2026; Fitch and S&P assessments.